Dec 12, 2013

A 10 year new low in Australian Equities?

Weekly Chart of the ASX200, Australian Equity Index Futures:

The drop into the 2009 March low at 3109 WAS NOT the Bottom but only an ORTHODOX lowest low bottom. The low seen in Nov 2008 at 3211 was the bottom of a clear 5 wave pattern within which the 5th is an extended one with minor inner i,ii,iii,iv,v waves.

The lowest low at 3109 is ACTUALLY an irregular b wave (a correction within the counter-trend move, that dropped lower than the cycle degree bottom of 3211. Such IRREGULAR B waves have a powerful forecasting value. Common-sense approach to breaking down any market movement as comprising of a confluence of movements (waves) over different time-scales would help visualize that when a MUCH LONGER DURATION WAVE / TREND is still down, whenever a correction within a counter-trend wave would come at the first instance it would go lower than the low of the prior wave in the larger direction. Such an IRREGULAR B wave helps create a forecasting courage that whenever and howsoever higher the prevailing counter-trend move of last 4 years would get over, the next move down, will break the 2009 lows!

The rise since this Nov 2008 low to now is abc(W)-abc(X)-i,ii,iii,iv,v(C)(Y). Thats in a simpler notation a completed WXY pattern that is often the structure of a corrective to the main trend. What Next?

The reversal that has already worked out on this market in the last several weeks can:

Either drop in a straight line forming a five part C wave and take us to 3000 area!

Or, it can drop in a 3 legged structure to 4425 area to form another X wave, then rise back into a high higher than seen few weeks ago to form a Z wave and then EVENTUALLY drop to 3000 area in a cycle degree wave C.

In either scenarios, for now we are going to 4425 to begin with and we will know by the time we reach there from the emergent wave counts whether with a rebound back to the recent highs or without, we will go to 3000.

I urge, such steep forecasts be not dismissed merely because they are steep. Why? Did Gold dropping from 1800 to 1200 look like an extreme idea? But it happened. Markets have a very old wisdom that confidence is the top and fear is the bottom as reminded few days ago by a colleague. It then clearly means, things seem impossible all the time in the markets and they keep getting possible.

Dec 10, 2013

Beeping Red Light Alert on the US Stocks to Long Bond Price Ratio

Traditional FED Model supposes that the Earnings Yield on S&P500 and the US 10 Year Long bond are in equilibrium. To check how and if this worked in history, I created a spread chart on a weekly closing basis subtracting the 10 year long bond yield from the earnings yield of S&P500 as shown in the chart below:

This spread measures the equity risk premium which refused to go positive through 1983 to beginning of 2003. Many times this risk premium came and found resistance at the zero level during this 20 year long period.

However, from 2003 to now, there is a continuous upward "Drift" in this indicator / variable / statistic. It has refused to go down below zero few times in this new regime, but has a strong uptrend regression channel. Until this "drift" breaks down, I am comfortable to surmise that the Equity Risk Premium in the United States is on a long term incline.

Definitionally, I disagree with the too much approximation such an idea does since the Earnings Yield on S&P is arrived at by taking historical earnings divided by Market Price, whereas the Bond Yield has anticipated cash flows of future more clearly.

So I worked around and tweaked this idea RESPECTING the Market Price way more than anything and created the SIMPLIFIED FED Model by dividing the price of the S&P500 near expiration futures with the US Long Bond near expiration futures. Why?

The price of an equity index discounts all possible future cash-flows at the ever changing “appropriate” discounting rate that is market-implied. Comparing price of equity index to price of long bond thus removes the conundrum of driving by looking at the rear view mirror.

A fantastic clarity emerges on this price ratio chart, that I am naming as the Market Implied FED Model:

PRECISELY 1 week ahead of the top of 2000, 1 week ahead of the top of 2007 and 1 week ahead of the bottom of 2003 and 2009 this ratio chart had Sell and Buy signals.

For those who are more quantitatively inclined each of these prior 4 key tops & bottoms, this ratio went past +2 and -2 std deviations respectively.

This present week, Price ratio is already past 2 standard deviations, RSI of this ratio is divergent too. Hence, if in the next week US long bond price performs better than the S&P500 futures, it could be a firm shrill whistle of a market top coming for equities.

This indicator and this note are pre-emptive, only a warning sign-post. The perils of forecasting place one sometimes before a grinding road-roller too. Nothing is permanent, indicators included. But then, I must find some reason to believe why this excess in the relative performance of stocks to bonds in the United Stated will defy a 13 year long relationship now!

Until I find a rationale, I will keep a close eye on the relative performance of long Bond and SnP 500 through the next week. More or less everyone has become complacent of a world that will remain permanently healthy on steroids.

If indeed the US Long Bond starts moving up sustainably from here while FED taper is lurking around the corner, how shall we reconcile to Bond Price Rally without significant yield decline? Well when a flight to safety becomes necessary, the trouble could actually be coming to this world from an origin that is not yet on the oceanographs. Which economies will uncoil relatively stronger rate rises making the US Long Bond a safe haven?

The Market Implied FED Model is what I call my simpler and more realistic one. It is beeping a red light alert!

Aug 8, 2013

Open Letter III to Mr. Narendra Modi: From Sher Shah Suri to Atal Behari Vajpayee & onwards to you..

Shri Narendra Modi
Prime Ministerial Candidate of
The Bhartiya Janta Party,

Dear Shri Modi Ji!

शुभ प्रभात ! आईये मंगल-बेला में मंगल विचार करें !

Grand Trunk Road was an idea that made a long term impact on what the India until Shri Vajpayee took over came to be. The Golden Quadrilateral since then put us in the next orbit. Well more and more roads can continue to be built.

A silent leakage that needs desperate and immediate plug-in for the economy, which can turn the entire fortitude of growth seekers is in making our Indian Railways World-class. 

It has reach, it has expanse, it has an unparalleled legacy, it has customers. What it lacks is the power of competitive resource allocation and alignment of goals with the customer, i.e. our nation. Its been stuck in a bureaucracy. This bureaucracy worked well until the English Imperialists managed Railways and who were deploying every capability for creating their gain out of India. Then after independence that lesser goal also got lost. Petty theft, in comparison with the mountain of wealth and opportunities that the Railways can create, has got us all lost.

I propose:

1. Indian Railways be re-organised into:

a. a significant number of zonal companies with operating licenses, that are to be bid transparently for,

b. Each zone must have three companies at least. These companies will be Railway Traffic Companies (RTCs).

c. Assets of a strategic national level foot print be part of a separate group of companies that may be akin to Railways Infrastructure corporations (RICs).

d. The Equity of the Railway Infrastructure Corporations must be held ONLY by the Railway Traffic Companies. This is to ensure that fair economic usage happens out of an industry wide management by objectives. No Government ownership of the infrastructure. All by private profit seekers who will compete with each other in a collaborative fair manner. Why cant cartelization sustain in such a model? The one’s who can grow competitively will seek more of the resources of the RICs becoming Quality Differentiators and those who cant grow competitively will become Price Differentiators. This segmentation that will grow naturally will keep resulting into competitive war-fare between companies. Competition is the only tool to extricate efficient allocation and management of capital and manpower.

e. To ensure safety standards of the highest levels in the world are ensured, no Government Servant or Minister needs to any longer go and shed crocodile tears. Make it a norm that every RTC must have adequate insurance coverage purchased to compensate for every accident resulting into loss of life and property. Competitive Insurance industry will automatically price out the risk for premia of inefficient companies. Make it mandatory that if criminal negligence is found, mere pass-through of compensation received from Insurance Companies will only clear a Civil Liability of an Insurance Contract, but the Criminal liability shall be administered rapidly for such negligence. If the mandatory CSR 2% of Top-line of these Companies is made to be spent by these companies on Safety & Passenger welfare, Indian Railways will become a world-wide delight. That is the level of leakage along the tracks...

f. Let there be endless Railway services companies. Private Food Chains of Indian brands are growing heavily on understanding of local tastes, practices, habits, culture. Let those bid for providing catering services on various routes. Government should be there to only to do quality control. To prevent hafta-raj in this monitoring role too, Let there be Electronic Feedback Units on stations and within trains.

g. Let there be Railway Sanitation Companies that will be contracted by each of the RTCs if they wish to outsource such works with stringent contracts for maintaining highest levels of hygiene in their trains. Penal Terms and Quality Control contracts by RTCs to these RSCs can ensure much better standards.
h. Let there be endless Railways Advertising Services Companies which will compete with each other to optimize the Revenues from Advertising and Multi Media information display services on the properties of the RICs.

i. Let each of these companies freely access the capital markets to find capital on the merit of their performances.

… and so on and so forth. Indian Railways is too big to fail India now and too big to manage and grow any longer. Hereon, smaller parts competing with each other are the best self-regulatory growth mechanism.

Let the Government of India focus on collecting fair taxes from these companies. Ensuring fair business practices and cut out a huge headache of corruption, inefficiency, nepotism, public outrage, drain on national resources. Let Railway Budget be a piece of History. Let us as a nation instead celebrate the Railway day, hereon, as you become the Prime Minister of India.

Let the newly formed companies that are going to be bid by only qualified private sector participants (enough promoters’ capital (upfront 5000 Crores or more of Promoters’ capital, not collected from Public), experience in handling complex businesses, clean reputation at law etc. etc.

How do we however break-up the work force, the transitioned IQ of generations that have managed the Railways? Well instead of the phony IPL cricket matches with phony bidding of spot fixers etc., let the Private sector bidders study, grill and choose which managers of the Railways they will woo to join their ranks. Let this one extremely large segment of Government Servants find the pride back in their uniforms. Let them earn as per their competence and amount of work, so that none of them ever feel the need to feel some warmth under their palm in a dark corner of a train bogey or a humid office corridor. This one stroke itself will clean up a lot of the Governance and set the urge in other businesses the Government runs to become totally private. 

Let the best of our Railways Managers compete with each other to find joy and satisfaction in improvising, innovating, getting acknowledged and celebrating their and every other Indian’s life. Why, would it not be inspiring to see Railway Captains flying by in private helicopters seeking to bid spare bogies for moving freight, than to just see IPL Captains flying around on endless fixations?

Its common knowledge that if the ROI on the assets locked under the Railways can even move up to the GDP growth rate, India can wipe out its budgetary deficit in 2 terms of a full Government.

Lokpal or Janlokpal, whichever comes by and only within the framework of Democracy, will find acceptance at the grassroots level, when those in the Uniforms, find it feasible to live in a meritocracy, in a world that rewards achievements and where dignity and pride become precious again.

Theatrics of Navratnas has played out ad-infinitum, ad nauseum. Lets seek with utmost sincerity and seriousness this Param-Ratna, our Indian Railways, the engine of a Swarnim Bharat! Lets unleash our potential and scale up the Econo-kinetics in one stroke and change the course of our destiny, forever. 

I urge you, the British Raj created the Railways even if for their private gain, they integrated India. Now, you should seriously indulge a debate to let this Nation understand that our greater integration and glory will come from disintegrating this power-hosue of our Railways into smaller, younger, efficient units that will help us achieve in real quick time the world’s most admirable transportation System. The American Railways Boom is what created truly the foundations of an Economic Super-Power. We have as a nation humility to learn from the achievements of all others.

Lets do it, Now!

With Intense Respect and Deep Love,
Seeking my Garvi Bharat!

Jul 23, 2013

Open Letter Two to Narendra Modi : Swarnim Bharat

Jul 4, 2013

Time for Economic Re-invention: Open Letter to Shri Narendra Modi

Time for Economic Re-invention:
 An Open Letter to Shri Narendra Modi


Deeply respected Modi Ji!

Needless to repeat that hopes of an India that I can live in proudly and achieve satisfaction at having been a productive human being has come alive finally, with your presence.

I will jump straight to the points, without other un-necessary formalities. Economic Reforms have been around. Not enough, to unlock the true potential of India. I seek, Economic Re-invention, thus.

Economic Blue-print for the heralding of a New Era, not just in India, but setting up an example for the Universe to emulate:

1) Taxation, propagated irrationally, is at the root of all dark economic practices. It must be re-looked at intensely. In a family, the son who earns most is adored and respected for undertaking larger responsibilities and the son who squanders on irresponsible consumption is chastised and reprimanded. If my nation is a family and if every society is a larger manifestation of the familial roots of man and mankind then why should wealth creators and income generators be chastised instead of being treated as Heros?! For enterprise, action, work the socialistic posturing has turned the true sons of the family lurk and lurch. It must stop. Income Tax Rate, must be announced openly on the day you take oath in office of the Prime Minister, will be reduced systematically within a period of five years to 15% only! Simultaneously Sales Tax and other Indirect Taxes will be made progressive. For example a Nano Car may have a mere 2% sales tax, a Santro Car may have a 5% sales tax, a Maruti Dezire may have a 10% sales tax, a Honda City may have a 15% tax, a Honda Civic may have a 20% Sales tax, an Audi A4 may have a 25% sales tax, an Audi A6 may have a 30% sales tax and a BMW Series 7 may have a 50% Sales Tax! The more hedonistic a consumption anyone does, the more he pays to the society for his ostentatious ways of living.

2) Clear Long Term Policy where Income is Worshipped and Expense abhorred: The moment a firm announcement is made that Income Taxes will be brought down to 15% in a matter of five years, endless positive things will happen. Re-rating of the country as an economic destination will start happening soon as a clear signal is given that India no longer runs on adhocism but has clear path-breaking progressive plans of long term stature. This will result into higher sovereign rating reducing the cost of capital from overseas, rushing in of new business plans and investments into the country both by way of FDI as well as through stock-markets will open flood-gates of capital.

Business Activity will start booming. A lowering tax rate every year will increase tax compliance. Upon making wealth what a man craves most is respectable and peaceful existence. Since there is no choice, due to a corrupt political system requiring existence of pools of large hoardes of cash, the high income tax rate becomes a sufficient motivation for big business to evade taxes. With a rate that is competitive globally, the increased on-board profit declarations will multiply market capitalizations of companies and the rapid multiplication in wealth will be a compelling enough reason for unprecedented tax compliance. Not only thus the tax compliance enhancement will take care of the dent in the loss of revenue to the exchequer, the rapidly enhancing Economic Income Multiplier along with Business Activity Level Boom, lowered cost of capital will create an unprecedented environment for celebrating creation of wealth.

India is a civilization where Mahalaxmi is worshipped. On the Diwali day we worship coins, gems and bullion. Our Samskar has been to not merely cherish wealth which socialists also do, but to celebrate the creation of wealth & to worship the source of wealth, i.e. the Mahalaxmi. Please help my civilization rediscover its samskar. How come those who are doing upasana of Mahalaxmi are villains and not heroes in our Civilization now? Where is my India gone, where God lived? The creator, Lord Vishnu, bestowed every resource on our geography so as Mahalaxmi could reside permanently here. Yet, it is we the people of India who must create the ambience and open-ness to receive Mahalaxmi as our permanent guest. To tax her incrementally rather than her use has taken her away from us. Switzerland & Singapore are two places which respect the upasaks of Mahalaxmi and that’s why she resides there more than in other places. By shouting slogans and challenging the democratic setup some attention grabbers may delude some of us that their rants will bring the capital from Switzerland to India, but they are clearly ignoring that Mahalaxmi is also known by the name Chanchala and she floats in this universe at her will visiting and living in place that truly understand Her ethos and have profound understanding of how She is to be treated.

Please thus, herald the Era, the Yuga-parivartan wherefrom Creation of Wealth will be a Celebration and Squandering of Wealth will meet with opprobrium, chastising, discouragement and penalty by making a flat low Income Tax Rate but a progressively higher Sales Tax.

The progressive consumption based sales and other indirect taxes will make India the ultimate factory of the universe. Since, lowered income taxes will incentivize production and sale of anything and everything and motivate larger and larger capacities for production creating jobs, trade and opportunities, the self regulated consumption mechanism due to higher and higher tax rates of sales and other indirect taxes on consumption would mean that even if extravaganzas, luxuries and super-brands are produced out of Indian factories, they would naturally be exported away to countries with irrationally flat consumption taxes but progressive income taxes.

So called modern economic thought is a hypocrisy. Progress and Wealth Production have to be acts that are celebrated by the whole society and hedonistic consumption must be something that should compensate the society. The modern day tax regimes have been upside down, the world over. To lead the universe, India has to lead in path-breaking new economic thought & action. The true essence of Swadeshi is to not isolate ourselves from the world, but to invite the world to be our good guests, bring gifts of their effort, capital and expertise and in the process leave our household a happier and vibrant place.

Compared to China, we have a powerful asset called Democracy and the Rule of Law and endless mass of competitively priced educated and trained manpower. If domestic consumption is going to be self-managed due to progressive consumption tax, exports will boom as every key business enterprise on our planet will vie to shift its production abilities in a territory as India that God has bestowed with every climate, every soil type, every mineral, every resource and endlessly rich variety in our Human Resources.

3) Re-invention of Human Capital: In the name of land reforms Congress has looted the morale of our Rural population as much as communists have. However, both these political thought processes have only worked at enriching the rich farmer, further.

No doubt agricultural revolutions will have to be really brought, but what is a key point of importance that we have continuously missed since independence is that the real source of wealth is the human being himself. Land without human beings is of no value. For that matter any asset without human beings is of no value to human beings. The real wealth and all of its origins lie in human capability. To hopelessly tie the future of the future generations in rural India to lack of land and unfair distribution of land is a sad veil at permanently destroying the hope, ambition, morale, skill and potential of our people.

I strongly wish that a leader of your stature should on an urgent basis institute the following, to establish pilot projects all over the state of Gujarat as a demonstration to not just India but the whole world:

a) Each district should have a very powerful and well funded Polytechnic that will focus on imparting skills to people interested in creating self-employment. BJP Leader Shri Manohar Joshi has a model organization by the name of Kohinoor Technical Institute in Dadar area of Mumbai. I urge, you rush some of your top thinking minds from your team to study that institute which is despite its achievements a pale small setup in comparison to what needs to be setup at each district. Perhaps an institution of similar nature, but with the resources and scale of a huge university is required in each and every district.

b) District Magistrates must be fully involved as leaders at each District Level, to run surveys and assessments on estimating which facilities and skills are lacking relatively in their districts. Do people need more Television repair mechanics, motorcycle repair mechanics, English and or Hindi language teachers etc. etc. for an example.

c) Micro-finance institutions must be promoted, partly by funding from the Govt. of Gujarat, partly by seeking funding from global multilateral agencies such as the International Finance Corporation and partly by the people of each and every village. Hamare desh ke har naagarik ko nav-nirman ka maalik banana hai. Less than the need for money from our people, we have to get their heart, soul and mind.

c) Nothing will be done on a charitable basis. We have to create a million Dhirubhais, a million JRD Tatas, a Billion self-dependent respectable human beings. Training courses will be sold to people by the polytechnics, even if at fair costs and at no profits. People will take micro-finance institutions’ funding to even buy these courses. They will then obtain more micro-finance to set up their tea-stalls, motorcycle repair centers, TV repair shops etc. etc. The whole approach rests on making people confident at taking risks of taking loans and buying training and setting up their own economic units that are not dependent on land or large capital but only on their imagination and effort. Swaabhimaan, Swaavalamban, Swaadheenta!   

d) The community in each village that will become the micro-finance lending committee will act as the moral deterrent for anyone from becoming frivolous. “Why after all the training, finance and support a young man or woman cannot create income and then wealth without land” will become the social milieu. Traditional families which have had values and which thus provoked a sense of shame on failure and a pride on achievement is what one wishes to do through the creation of village and district wide familial atmosphere.

e) The next layer of this Rural Revolution would be to start propagating the sense of co-operative movements and help build brands and raise capital for these co-operatives through capital markets. Shri Kurien did a path-breaking work in creating Amul as a Brand. Had he stretched his vision to create a Company fully owned by the Co-operative and shifted the Brand into this Company and obtained Private Equity Funding to hire professionals for growing the marketing of Amul and eventually got that company to list on the Stock-markets then the Anand Milk Marketing Co-operative Federation would have easily monetized an asset to the tune of Rupees Twenty Thousand Crores. Each and every member of the Anand Co-operative would have been a Crorepati and their Children would have by now been studying in IIM-A, Harvard or at IITs. A completely new class could have been created in the society. Progress is unlimited, like our imagination is. If this has not been done so far, what is stopping us from doing this now? To create an infinite factory of Arab-patis?!

f) Execution is what makes an idea work. You have the power to execute and get things done. As execution happens and as the desire to move from villages to cities is reversed and as a slogan reaches the sky, “Haalo re Haalo, Paachha gaam maaj jaiye” the sense of enterprise, ownership, effort and success will become a household idea. Israelis have this sense at the grassroots level. We have to acquire this sense with the same intensity and if we can acquire it with our size and diversity, we will then truly setup the path of making India the leader on this globe in not just thoughts, but as much in actions.

Without any doubt, without any questions an unflinching faith is arising again since Sardar Patel, that you can execute with zero failure tolerance. I humbly thus submit my wish-lists before you draft your election manifesto, with an earnest desire to extricate robust promises from you.

My mind races with endless imagination at how India’s potential could be unleashed. I clearly will never be able to finish the script of the ultimate saga that India will be. For now, I will close this open letter with a promise that I shall write endless more addendums, for you and our nation to reflect and then act upon.

With intense respect and love, Seeking a Garvi Bharat!

May 10, 2013

जब चले जाओगे

जब चले जाओगे 

मुझे हमेशा अपने साथ ही पाओगे 
इस गीत को तुम अब गुनगुनाओगे । 

सूरत अपनी साथ ले जा भी पाओगे 
अपनी सीरत को यहीं छोड़  जाओगे । 

वादा करता हूँ कभी याद न करूंगा 
क्यूंकि हर पल एहसास में जीऊंगा । 

आलिंगन में तो अब नहीं ही आओगे 
पर हर स्पर्श का सुकून रख जाओगे । 

अधीर अधरों को तो ले ही  जाओगे 
हर मुस्कान पे मेरे निशाँ पाओगे  । 

ले भी चले जाओ अपनी मीठी खुशबू 
पर हवा तो बहेगी, कैसे रोक पाओगे। 

जब चले जाओगे, तब भी यूँ ही भाओगे 
इस गीत को तुम अब गुनगुनाओगे । 

Mar 17, 2013

Accept Excepting Expectations

Accept  Excepting Expectations

When we accept another and/ or are accepted by another, we experience happiness. Yet, the duality of our perceptive screens comes along with certain possible occurrences that we need to except in our undertakings. One of them is to expect more. Another is to even have the fear that the other will expect more from us.  To overcome the concept of expectations is thus necessary in any of its forms to reach a state of being happy, together.

So, this fits in well that we need to accept excepting expectations. When two individuals can stick to accept except expectations a thriving relationship can happen. Even if one of the two has a hesitation of making any commitments of any duration, the specific moment when accept except expectations comes true it becomes a moment of total happiness and bliss.

If one can achieve one such moment only then the prospects of moving from this one moment into an ongoing series of such total moments is possible. Without a beginning, there is no journey. So, even if either person has a fear that the other may expect, both of them will have to still accept each other excepting even the fear of being expected from.

If two individuals can graduate to achieving one moment of “Accept except Expectations” Ahha happens. Happiness can thrive only on this seed of ahha... ! Every other state is unhappiness. So it is not enough to not expect, but as important to even overcome the fear of another expecting of us.  

A fear is an anticipation, an expectation of a possible type of future, even if an undesirable one. This brings one to a concluding point, that when happiness is indeed ephemeral and momentary, the willingness to appreciate and live in each moment is the necessary beginning to have a life that can become a journey in happiness.  

Given the fact that the entire body of knowledge that is known and will ever be known is comprehended by our minds through dialectical materialism, it becomes necessary that each person or in other words each soul rises beyond itself and seeks to connect with one other at least, so as the dialectical perception process of two minds can nullify the duality of everything and help both the souls reach states of totality.

To try and do this exercise in establishing, maintaining and retaining a connection with the invisible, unseen, unheard, unsmelt, untasted God is so much more difficult since our mind needs to be silenced to a point where our sensory organs are not pinging our consciousness for even one moment. The challenge gets much more manageable when we can begin to see the presence of God, if we need to feel or reach him, in experiencing the totality of any connect, relationship or interaction with another mind / soul also suffering from dialectical materialism. I have written before too, that it is not possible to determine if the mother made the child the child or the child made the mother the mother. The duality of this universe collapses in such a connection where “Accept except Expectations” can arise providing any soul the opportunity and plank to gauge at this universe with totality. So love, friendship, relationship etc. are ideas that can thus take one to a state of totality and each is thus then a path to experience, feel and acknowledge the divine.  The key then is to Accept except Expectations.  

Long ago, in the early stages of my career fortitude took me before one of the most exceptional achievers in my field. He had often remarked that “One may be smart with situations and sincere with people”. This one thought has so much power that it compelled me to think again and again. Over time, this seed of a powerful idea has transformed for me into, “One may expect from situations and processes but never from people”. This keeps one functional in the material world as well as the spiritual world of relationships. 

As scientists, mathematicians, economists, traders etc. etc. we in any profession have to anticipate the likely outcome and only then choose to undertake one or the other decision. So we cannot be free from expecting a likely course of outcome from the material world to be effective in it. Yet the fact that our soul rides on our body, our spiritual existence rides on this material world. So while one must anticipate the possible outcomes of processes and situations, one must also be willing to let the soul and the spirit behind each action (karma) to Accept Excepting Expectations! 

As Edward de Bono defines mind as a self organizing pattern seeking system, it is to be human then to be finding it difficult to not seek patterns within our perception. The entire spiritual challenge is to overcome our own mind. Until we reach that state, which rare few only do, it is still possible to be truly happy and have so by fulfilling relationships. How? 

Even the focus on meeting and exceeding expectations of the other and not being worried about one's own expectations is just but one variant of Accept except Expectations! It is in giving that we receive better the joys of being human. The dialectical materialism collapses since in giving and finding with each act of exceeding the expectations of the other we are able to manage our own expectations better. If the focus shifts to finding better fulfilment of one's own expectations than in meeting with the expectations of others dialectical perception takes us over destroying joy, happiness and bliss. 

So, focus on giving than receiving, focus on meeting with expectations than expecting and free yourself from the fear of that the other will expect more than expecting a larger joy and happiness. Accord the privelege on the other to be knowing what happiness is as much as you know about it and given that each action has an inducing reaction, a feedback loop and an effect of modifying the perceptions of the other, Accept excepting Expectations. Be happy, truly. 

Jan 6, 2013

Rise in Happiness, Don't fall in Love!

Rise in Happiness, Don't fall in Love! 

Ahha is a feeling that is a manifestation of happiness. Expectations reduce Ahha!

Anger is an emotion that manifests when one feels one has been wronged. Thus there is an underlying expectation of what right should have been done to ONE and that has not been done or in lieu of that its opposite may have been done. 

Guilt is an emotion that manifests when one feels one has wronged. Thus there is an underlying expectation of what right ONE should have done and that has not been done by ONE or its opposite may have been done. 

What is right and what is wrong? They are not absolutes but contextual. Contextuality arises from the human subjugation to the dialectical nature of our perceptive screens. Sciences also describe the universe as dialectic. That too is perception. This perceptive screen arises from looking for underlying reasons and if then thinking. However, happiness becomes absolute since it is free from if then thinking. 

If someone did not agree to spare time to share a movie with me then I get unhappy? That means I was not happy in any case and this cannot be the reason of not being happy. Happiness is in being, knowing one is fine and doing what can be done. 

Pressure free, anxiety free, future free, past free. Living in the moment is a seed of happiness and if one can continue to live inside the soothing ovum of the present moment one can stay happy. Since nothing is constant except change, there will be moments that we will step out of the comforting and soothing and benign protective layer of the present moment and lose or change the intensity of our happiness. 

Wisely happy are those who will return back to the moment and be happy. 

To not expect is divine. To be human and still be happy is to constantly work at "managing" our expectations. Its not about NOT expecting, but its about expecting in a way that we can grant ourselves enough Ahha to feel we are happy and not just be happy. 

Happiness is in knowing our limited perceptive ability, in appreciating the infinitude of the universe, in recognizing that we must open all gates for receiving positive surprises and in letting go of our inhibitions, fears, specificity so as we are not holding onto any particular doors but be available as an expanded soul to be able to go and greet happiness at any door it comes at. 

No one else and no event can be a driver of happiness. Its a state of accepting this universe, accepting the self and be in harmony with what is. To subjugate one's happiness to something happening or not happening is the trigger by which we always diminish happiness. Such an absolute state of happiness is indeed difficult, yet please reflect if we can be aware of this is what happiness is and then constantly guide our soul towards reaching and staying in that state we can maximize happiness. Permanence, in an impermanent world, of even happiness is not feasible. 

So I have a wish for you, please be as happy as you can be. Please let happiness come to you. Observe, listen, feel, reflect, accept. 

Let love be your strength never your weakness.  An absolute such as love makes us realize what we can know beyond the dialectical perceptive screens.  Did the mother make the son or the son made the mother, the mother? Did the husband happen to make the wife happen or the wife happened to make the husband happen? Did one friend make the other the friend a friend or is it the other way round? See in this simple thinking there is no dialectical screen! Soon as one human mind or soul reaches another dialectical perceptions collapse! Get conscious of the absolutes since an absolute is but every other absolute! To realize and be aware of the absolute is what happiness is. One may choose to call one or the other absolute as Love, Friendship, Relation, God or whatever. Yet any absolute is just the absolute. Feel it, as many moments as you will!   

Whenever you meet anyone, in your own mind or in this world, think and judge what are you able to give in happiness. When we are attracted to a quality or an attribute of another we like that one. Yet when we are able to continue to like that one despite the diminution of that quality, attribute or ability we are in love. So to be able to be liked despite who we have been or will be and thus be loved, there is nothing that we can do other than giving our selves in love.  Commanding love is way easier and more permanent than demanding love. When you give, you command and when you seek you demand. Rising in love is about giving and falling in love is in seeking.

When love happens giving is receiving, less is more, silence speaks, impossible is possible, surrender captivates, God exists! The entire dialectical perception process collapses into an unconditional happiness. There is no if left in our minds which will then let us be happy! 

So rise in love, never fall!  Rise in happiness, don't fall in love!